Good article. It brings together some angles that others have missed. I intend to look more closely at the Bernstein list and your cross-referencing of the 21 Senators.
McConnell & Co may try to take the easy way out with a censure and perhaps with use of section 3 of the 14th Amendment. This would allow the 5 or 10 who are willing to stand up against Trump to walk the plank alone – while the rest of the party would continue with its pattern of “I don’t approve of what Trump does, but the process is wrong.” This obviously isn’t going to solve their long-term problems.
A group of 100 Republicans led by Evan McMullin has already started discussions about a principled third party break from the Republicans.
The vote Saturday will be interesting, but it will be far from the end of the process. One thing I agree with you on is that Trump will continue to lose support over time. But it is hard to know how much of Trump’s hard core base will stick with him and how much of a pull this will be on the Republican Party.
The way to circumvent McConnell’s censure strategy is to make a censure MEANINGFUL with actual legislation behind it, and then to make all Republican politicians take a stand on it OVER TIME. Make them explicitly reject Trump and uphold an actual set of principles.
This strategy is actually politically possible and I am continually updating it as events evolve in The War After the Election [https://medium.com/illumination-curated/the-war-after-the-election-545de96aa4ca?source=friends_link&sk=627c55d616d9296af3e398f1686493a4] and a short six paragraph link at the end of it which explains the very targeted, but critical legislation that could be attached to a censure.